The 7 Reasons Why It’ll Be Almost Impossible For Florida State To Make The Title Game

Bull City, Football, Lists — By on September 27, 2012 at 2:00 am


The landscape of the Atlantic Coast conference now falls on the shoulders of the Florida State Seminoles. Florida State has a dominant team. Almost as dominant as any we have seen the great Seminoles field. As a matter of fact, they look good in every phase of the game outside of their passing game, which continues to be a work in progress and is improving from week to week.

The Seminoles have weapons, and they are decimating their opponents. However that’s probably going to be their undoing to get to a national championship game. The Seminoles non-conference schedule is softer than a baby’s bottom, and despite the outcome of the team, there is a good chance they won’t get enough computer points to pass any of the solid teams that may finish undefeated or even have one loss.

It doesn’t help that the ACC is no longer really worth watching on television. Clemson is week to week and Virginia Tech can’t win a big game. The reality of the situation is that the teams that the ACC needs to be solid are now pretty fragile.

Here is how I see it coming down.

  1. LSU or Alabama will probably go undefeated and play in the SEC championship game.
  1. Georgia will probably go undefeated as well and play the winner of the LSU and Alabama game in the SEC championship.
  1. The winner of the SEC championship will get a bid automatically.
  1. The PAC-12 will probably have Oregon in the mix and possibly even Stanford. The question is if Oregon runs the table and beats USC and Stanford how you can not give the Ducks the nod due to strength of schedule is beyond me.
  1. Even if LSU loses to Bama and runs the table, the Tigers will get consideration above an undefeated FSU simply because FSU needs Florida to be good in order for its non-conference schedule to stack up. The Seminoles will get penalized for playing Savannah State and Murray State.
  1. If the Big 12 has a team run the table, which is highly unlikely unless Kansas State does it, then the Big 12 will get the seed ahead of the ACC simply because the computers will give them more points for the non-conference schedule and the lack of strength in the conference schedule.
  1. Quite frankly FSU is going to need Alabama to lose, Georgia to lose, LSU to lose and Oregon or Kansas State to lose to get into the championship game due to strength of schedule.

There is a chance that this formula could be off a little, but I can’t see how it will go in any other direction unless Savannah State finds a way to upset one of the top four teams in the MEAC and Murray State wins at least three games in a weak Ohio Valley conference.

The only other way they get to the National Championship is that the coaches’ poll gets more weight than the computer rankings in the BCS formula. If that happens, then you can throw out the numbers altogether because that may bring a one-loss SEC team back into the fold ahead of the Seminoles and even the Big 10.

It’s a shame too because Florida State is a pretty good team. The Seminoles just picked a bad year to schedule a couple of cupcakes on that schedule.

Joe Simmons

Editor in Chief of Bull City Inc. NCCU Color Commentator for Football and Basketball. Educator by day, Sports enthusiast by night.

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    18 Comments

  • J. Tinsley says:

    Don’t you speak this evil on us, Joe Simmons!

  • Kenny says:

    Wait until Keith Tolbert sees this. Something tells me he will strongly disagree.

  • JT says:

    You made some valid points @Joe. The ACC needs Tech and Clemson to only lose one or two games. Those cupcake games will comeback to bite FSU if those teams in better conferences don’t bite the dust at least once.
    FSU seems legit this year, maybe next year their schedule won’t be soooo soft out of conference.

    • Joe Simmons says:

      Soft schedule withstanding they just need to be one of two undefeated teams left. If that happens and they are impressive all season they have a legitimate shot. If they stumble one time down the stretch and voters get skeptical, then it can bite them in the tail.

  • Keith says:

    What?!?! Blasphemy!!!!! LOL. Seriously though, after last year’s debacle, I came into this year determined not to be blinded by my fandom. So I’ll address each point.

    1. Agreed.
    2. I’m not so sure on the undefeated part. They usually lay an egg against somebody every year. But I do think they have a good chance to make the SEC championship game.
    3. Agreed.
    4. Agreed on Oregon. I don’t think Stanford would jump us though. But it’s gonna be tough for Oregon. They have to go to Corvallis for the Civil War (after playing Stanford the previous week) and if they get past that, beat USC again. It’s possible, but it’s gonna be tough.
    5. We disagree here. After last year’s championship game, I just don’t think the voters are going to allow that to happen again. We’ll just have to wait and see on this one.
    6. I’d probably agree if the big 12 had a championship game and OU or Texas was the undefeated team. So like you said, this is unlikely to happen.
    7. I say we only need Bama or LSU and Oregon to lose. Like you said, the SEC champion will get a spot. Oregon will be the only team standing in our way. Unless K-State just starts blowing everybody away, I don’t think they’ll jump us.

    In defense of our schedule, we had WVU scheduled, but they backed out. Also, I think that VT will be ranked by the time we play them. They always suck early and come on strong late. And if we can beat a ranked VT in Blacksburg AND in Charlotte, I think we’ll have a good shot at making it (assuming all those other scenarios I mentioned play out). And it also hurt that USF sucks. It was thought they’d be somewhat good this year.

    All this said, we have to take care of business on the field. If we lose once, the national championship dream is over.

    Good post, brotha Joe.

    • JG*RunsTheNoles says:

      This said it all to me. I truly just don’t see all these giants outside of Alabama going undefeated. I *do* see FSU finally making good on this season and taking care of the rest of the teams that we play. My hope is that Clemson tightens up defense and doesn’t lose again. VT enters back into the rankings, and Florida stays the path of at least not sucking ass. That way when we dominate it actually means something.

      I agree that this isn’t the best year to be as awesome as we are but it’s a helluva good start. Whether we make it to the ‘Ship this year or not I’m proud of our boys. We OWN Florida.

      • Joe Simmons says:

        JG
        If they run the table it’s going to be hard to keep them out unless they have that trap game and look less than stellar. They need to be the only undefeated team left and hope that SEC has a 1 loss team and the Big 12 has a one lost team. If all three have a 1 loss team.. The ACC isn’t getting in.

    • Joe Simmons says:

      Word… I hope you are right man. When I was in Savannah this weekend and I saw their RPI points I was like wow… Duke was even vested because if we lost to Savannah then their victory against us carried no water. West Virginia did a lot of teams wrong backing out. They changed schedules three times.

      The main thing is to do what they need to do and run the table.. Pressure will not allow an undefeated team to not get there unless there are 3 teams in the fold.

  • Don says:

    Mr. Simmons,
    an excellent analogy, an excellent analogy. un-biast and valid. My compliments
    I agree with much of what you have written. I agree, yet I must say that as an FSU fan that stands by his team win or loose, I feel that it is a shame that these young men will be penalized, if they run the table, all because of West Virginia cancelling the game due to conference re-alignment. This should not be allowed. I understand the reasons why, but this is one of the negatives that mar the great institution of college football. Money and higher exposure, mostly, money.
    This taints the purity of college sports, and causes hardships for, not to mention an embarrassment to the perspective institutions involved. Mainly FSU.
    FSU had no intentions of scheduling Savannah State. FSU has scheduled quality apponenents through the years, and year end and year out FSU has had one of the top 10 hardest schedules in college football. This is one of the reasons that FSU dominated for so many years. They have proven dominant, so far, this year.
    These young men practice hard study hard and once on the field play with all the heart god has given to lions.

    Please allow me to address your reasoning
    Only 1 team either Alabama or LSU will go undefeated leading into the SEC Championship Game
    Georgia may go undefeated, But they do have to play several teams that could give them problems, in Florida South Carolina and yes even Clemson. Who may be the second best team in the country. They do have that talent. Yes the SEC champion most likely will get an automatic championship bid, Either Alabama, LSU, Georgia, and I will go out on a limb and say Florida, which FSU plays the last game of the regular season. Oregon would be a formidable opponent in the Championship game, if they get by USC, UCLA or Stanford. A very tall order. If they do they certainly deserve it. If we have a scenario like last year, no one will want to see another retake of last seasons national championship. But it should very well happen. Most people think because of the strength of the SEC, a one loss SEC team is better than a Pac 12 or a Big 12 team and most times they are correct as history has repeated itself. ACC as well. The SEC has been dominate and no one can argue. But any team can fall on any given Saturday. But ask yourself, If they fall and an ACC or Big 12 or Pac 12 team does not, who has more championship qualities, one who falls or win that succeeds? Is that not the prerequisite of a championship team? Yes I agree, in order for number 4 to make it to the Championship game, number 1,2, or 3 needs to fall. That is why the championship is not given until the last game. And the last man standing deserves the crystal trophy.

    Strength of schedule is so important. But so is integrity, fortitude and hard work. FSU has displayed these qualities, and should not be punished for another teams greed and desire for more money and more exposure. Integrity needs to be part of the equation in the BCS computer rankings, how naïve of me to think so. My point is, they will but should not be punished for their schedule. Again sir, please do not feel as if I am arguing your point. Actually I agree with most of what you are saying, and you are right in your rational. All I am saying is that FSU is being punished for something out of their control. And the young men who play so hard for the right to call themselves champions is wrong. That is if they do run the table. To me, they are already champions. Thank you for an excellent, well written, valid point.
    Sincerely,
    Don

    • Joe Simmons says:

      Don

      All your points are valid and if they run the table I hope they get their chance. I honestly think this might be the best FSU team in years and I would love to see them get that title shot. Hopefully the cards fall in their favor but first they have to win out.. If they can do that then fate has a way of working itself out. Thanks for checking us out.

  • JAG says:

    Stanford’s loss certainly helps FSU’s cause. There will be other upsets as well. In the history of the BCS (from around 1998), it’s extremely rare for an undefeated team from a major conference to be excluded from the title game.

    If FSU runs the table, and that’s never easy, even with a favorable schedule, they should be all right.

  • Damn, there are a lot of you folks that read us are FSU fans, huh?

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