The landscape of the Atlantic Coast conference now falls on the shoulders of the Florida State Seminoles. Florida State has a dominant team. Almost as dominant as any we have seen the great Seminoles field. As a matter of fact, they look good in every phase of the game outside of their passing game, which continues to be a work in progress and is improving from week to week.
The Seminoles have weapons, and they are decimating their opponents. However that’s probably going to be their undoing to get to a national championship game. The Seminoles non-conference schedule is softer than a baby’s bottom, and despite the outcome of the team, there is a good chance they won’t get enough computer points to pass any of the solid teams that may finish undefeated or even have one loss.
It doesn’t help that the ACC is no longer really worth watching on television. Clemson is week to week and Virginia Tech can’t win a big game. The reality of the situation is that the teams that the ACC needs to be solid are now pretty fragile.
Here is how I see it coming down.
- LSU or Alabama will probably go undefeated and play in the SEC championship game.
- Georgia will probably go undefeated as well and play the winner of the LSU and Alabama game in the SEC championship.
- The winner of the SEC championship will get a bid automatically.
- The PAC-12 will probably have Oregon in the mix and possibly even Stanford. The question is if Oregon runs the table and beats USC and Stanford how you can not give the Ducks the nod due to strength of schedule is beyond me.
- Even if LSU loses to Bama and runs the table, the Tigers will get consideration above an undefeated FSU simply because FSU needs Florida to be good in order for its non-conference schedule to stack up. The Seminoles will get penalized for playing Savannah State and Murray State.
- If the Big 12 has a team run the table, which is highly unlikely unless Kansas State does it, then the Big 12 will get the seed ahead of the ACC simply because the computers will give them more points for the non-conference schedule and the lack of strength in the conference schedule.
- Quite frankly FSU is going to need Alabama to lose, Georgia to lose, LSU to lose and Oregon or Kansas State to lose to get into the championship game due to strength of schedule.
There is a chance that this formula could be off a little, but I can’t see how it will go in any other direction unless Savannah State finds a way to upset one of the top four teams in the MEAC and Murray State wins at least three games in a weak Ohio Valley conference.
The only other way they get to the National Championship is that the coaches’ poll gets more weight than the computer rankings in the BCS formula. If that happens, then you can throw out the numbers altogether because that may bring a one-loss SEC team back into the fold ahead of the Seminoles and even the Big 10.
It’s a shame too because Florida State is a pretty good team. The Seminoles just picked a bad year to schedule a couple of cupcakes on that schedule.