Mark Andrews, TE for the Baltimore Ravens:
This guy is living the classic “scores a ton during his breakout season, then is up and down... then sucks” fantasy-career arc. Make no mistake, Andrews is an excellent football player and an indispensable cog in a very dangerous Ravens attack, lead by none other than the star of fantasy quarterbacking himself, Lamar Jackson. But in fantasy terms, you’re way better off choosing someone who won’t command such a hefty draft price, and who operates in a more pass-oriented system.
cDon’t forget, the Ravens also have a history of drafting prolific Tight Ends (Dennis Pitta, anyone?) and his backups are quite good as well... which all makes for a situation where I’d rather be sure my guy gets his looks, instead of seeing the QB poach half my touchdowns, or another TE catch them.
The Pittsburgh Steelers Defense/Special Teams:
We all know how not to fall for the trick of expecting a defense to perform the way it did the year before... but then someone will mention how the Steelers are “always good” on defense, and draft on brand-name alone. As I’ve previously mentioned in other articles, there’s never really a reason to select a D/ST until the last rounds of your draft, and even then it’s kind of pointless.
Of course, if you’re a huge fan of a team and want to play their defense every week, be my guest. But if you’re planning on chasing last season’s results, you’re in for a frustrating experience. For example, are you really worse off playing the Bengals against Miami, or any other random match-up that seems juicy, instead of rolling with Pittsburg week in and week out? I’ll leave that decision up to you.
D.K. Metcalf, WR for the Seattle Seahawks:
After a monster rookie season spent beasting Defensive Backs like he was still in high-school, Metcalf is projected to continue his meteoric rise and be one of the top wide-receiving fantasy prospects for next season. We here at TSFJ beg to differ. One of the main reasons for D.K.’s excellent season is that defensive coordinators didn’t have any professional tape on him, and therefore tried to defend his routes with typical “rookie-killing” techniques.
The problem was that Metcalf is anything but typical, and consistently out-muscled his competition by using pure physicality to win at the point of attack. With a full season of game-tape now available, we expect to see a moderate regression, as teams resort to doubling him on every play (and prey on the small weaknesses in his still-evolving technique). Don’t misunderstand us and think we’re claiming he’ll be a bust... just don’t be surprised when he puts up a few duds.
Odell Beckham Jr., WR for the Cleveland Browns:
Oh dell, where art thou? After flaming out with the New York Giants, and then sustaining a bizarre injury last season while throwing a routine block, Odell took the bench... it suddenly turned out that Cleveland’s offense (statistically, at least) worked better without him! That’s got to be weighing on a lot of minds during this off-season, especially considering his injury history and the fact the Browns have transitioned towards a more ground-oriented approach under Baker Mayfield, to maximize his play-action abilities. Maybe by this September, when everyone returns to the field and the helmets are on, Mayfield will have learned to spread the ball around more, and won’t feel the need to force feed his diva receiver... But if not, expect Beckham to start complaining like he always does, and the team to suffer in traditional Browns fashion.
Mike Evans, WR for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers:
Mike Evans won’t be able to repeat his 13 touchdown on 70 reception total from the last year’s Superbowl-winning season, because when you compare these results with his previous efforts, it becomes apparent that such production is an anomaly mostly brought on by Tom Brady’s arrival in Tampa Bay. Some people might think that Brady’s continued presence on the team is an indicator of similar, future success for his receivers... but forget that opponents are going to be dialed in on his favorite target like never before.
The math says stay away, and for once, we’re going to listen. Evans will still most likely get about 5 catches a game and close to 10 touchdowns when all is said and done, but make sure you aren’t paying for past production and keep your eyes on the future.
